The Global Climate Status Report(GCSR)
SUMMARY CLIMATE ASSESSMENT REPORT
June 10, 2014
A product of the Space and Science Research Corporation (SSRC)
Orlando, Florida, USA
Summary Climate Assessment
After a thorough review of the selected climate status parameters up through June 10, 2014, the
current status and predicted climate assessment for the Earth is as follows:
1. Current Climate Status.
a. Overall Climate Status. The Earth is presently in a strong and sustained phase of GLOBAL COOLING. Though there is new evidence of moderation in this rate during the 2013-2014 period, the rate of temperature decline on a 100 year trend line is the steepest seen during that time frame going back to 1914. We conclude that the past period of global warming, as a natural phase of climate variation caused by the Sun, has ended, and a new cold climate epoch has begun.
b. Two Hundred Year Solar Cycle Continues to Dominate Global Climate. The most recent multi-centennial climate epoch which began around 1830, has begun to reverse direction from a global temperature standpoint. The past period of generally increasing warmth for the Earth, which was caused by the Sun’s natural and regular cycles of activity, reached a peak of warming between 2007 and 2008 as measured by global atmospheric temperatures in the lower troposphere. This change was observed in oceanic temperatures as early as 2003. Acting
primarily under the influence of a repeating 206 year solar cycle, a new “solar hibernation” has begun, and is marked by a significant decline in the Sun’s energy output. Starting with solar cycle #24, this energy reduction has initiated an expected reversal from the past warm era to a new cold era.
c. Near Term Trends. Major features of the Earth’s current climate status include the following sustained trends:
(1) There has been no effective growth in global temperature for seventeen (17) years. Temperatures in the lower troposphere have temporarily stabilized from a previously declining short term trend because of 2013-2014 warming. This trend is expected to revert to cooling in the next year or two.
(2) Integrated Global Atmospheric Temperatures continue to show a long term COOLING trend that began in 2007. (100 year trend). The Tropics which are an especially important indicator, continue their steep drop in temperatures which began in 2004.
(3) Integrated Global Oceanic Temperatures continue to show a long term COOLING trend that began in 2003. The rate of oceanic temperature decline has been slightly reduced over the past year but is expected to continue its long term decline. Though the Indian Ocean continues its warming trend, the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean temperatures down to the first 100 meters depth are experiencing rapid reductions that began in 2005.
2. Climate Prediction for the Next Thirty Years.
Based on the SSRC’s Relational Cycle Theory (RC Theory) using natural cycles as a means for climate prediction and in view of the trends demonstrated by the twenty four global climate parameters, the following climate prediction is believed to be the most accurate available for the period of 2014 to 2044:
a. Highly variable and extreme weather events are expected during the transition from the past warm period to one of rapid global cooling.
b. This next climate change to a long and deep cold era is expected to last for at least the next thirty to forty years.
c. The extent and depth of the cold weather produced in this new climate era is estimated to be the worst in over two hundred years producing a global temperature reduction of 1.0 to 1.5 degrees centigrade.
3. Likely Future Climate Scenarios. The SSRC believes existing climate change indicators support the assessment that a new potentially dangerous cold climate age has begun. It should be emphasized that unless a significant unexpected and rapid change in the present declining ocean and atmosphere temperature trends occurs, there are only two climate scenarios that appear likely at this time over the next forty years. Each scenario results in a new cold climate era:
a. Scenario 1. A solar hibernation similar to the Dalton Minimum (1793-1830). This would result in routine establishment of new 200 year cold weather records.
b. Scenario 2. A solar hibernation similar to the one during the Maunder Minimum (1615-1745). A climate period like this would see 400 year temperature records and widespread climate and weather extremes.
4. Human Impacts. A review of the history from these periods shows they were marked by significant increases in cold weather deaths, starvation through global crop losses, livestock losses, and loss of life through concurrent civil unrest, warfare and disease. Record cold effects of the current hibernation are already being felt and instances of crop damage may occur at any time. During that past Dalton era the crop damage was so severe that one US historian has called the period mankind’s “…greatest subsistence crisis.” Both scenarios for the Earth’s climate future are likely to result in substantial, global, social disruption and loss of life. The difference will be one of degree.
5. Increased Geophysical Activity. Further, the SSRC and other researchers have determined that there exists a strong correlation between solar hibernations and the largest recorded earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Large volcanic eruptions (VE6+) may exacerbate the ongoing transition to a new cold climate epoch through augmented aerosol and dust shielding and reflection of incoming solar radiation.
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service. Users of this document may distribute it to any they wish without the need to obtain the permission of the
Space and Science Research Corporation (SSRC). The SSRC may be contacted by phone at 407-985-3509 or by email
at mail@spaceandscience.net or by regular mail to SSRC, P.O. Box 607841, Orlando Fl, 32860.
